Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.337374 0.383598 0.433780 0.492303 0.558677 0.631625 0.717889
2025-09-21 0.266380 0.326890 0.397640 0.486461 0.595006 0.723382 0.886838
2025-09-28 0.213332 0.280487 0.364452 0.477121 0.624406 0.810514 1.063808
2025-10-05 0.183004 0.256422 0.354067 0.493393 0.687182 0.947423 1.324021
2025-10-12 0.153672 0.228488 0.333888 0.493137 0.727812 1.061327 1.572306
2025-10-19 0.132154 0.207692 0.319985 0.498956 0.777296 1.194309 1.868124
2025-10-26 0.116533 0.192896 0.312266 0.512270 0.839394 1.354272 2.228616
2025-11-02 0.097706 0.169839 0.288065 0.495700 0.851800 1.438904 2.483633
2025-11-09 0.080981 0.147421 0.261292 0.470371 0.845357 1.491238 2.692371
2025-11-16 0.069763 0.132664 0.245117 0.460441 0.863281 1.586361 2.988157
2025-11-23 0.060252 0.119426 0.229540 0.448956 0.876232 1.673766 3.282098
2025-11-30 0.054924 0.113232 0.225933 0.459150 0.930874 1.844605 3.757400
2025-12-07 0.047005 0.100894 0.209190 0.442144 0.932025 1.917625 4.061341
2025-12-14 0.041348 0.092284 0.198574 0.435941 0.954236 2.035944 4.477317
2025-12-21 0.036257 0.084038 0.187444 0.426900 0.969128 2.141617 4.884190
2025-12-28 0.033699 0.080983 0.186945 0.440975 1.036556 2.368765 5.593188
2026-01-04 0.030374 0.075602 0.180443 0.440396 1.070785 2.527947 6.173625
2026-01-11 0.027815 0.071625 0.176556 0.445341 1.118755 2.725551 6.876335
2026-01-18 0.025936 0.069016 0.175517 0.457046 1.184978 2.975926 7.747721
2026-01-25 0.022841 0.062768 0.164577 0.442126 1.182242 3.058584 8.211397
2026-02-01 0.019774 0.056071 0.151459 0.419436 1.155832 3.078066 8.514742
2026-02-08 0.017712 0.051773 0.143942 0.410515 1.164673 3.189682 9.082618
2026-02-15 0.015839 0.047691 0.136371 0.400228 1.168159 3.287666 9.629194